Trade progress boosts equities, dents gold; oil soars as OPEC gathers

Forex
Morning Note

It’s been a week of good progress so far, with positive noises on trade and oil production cuts. Markets are firmly risk-on, which is good news for equities and oil, while gold is feeling the pressure.

Equities have recorded strong gains today on the back of trade progress at the G20 meeting. The US and China have agreed to restart trade talks after President Donald Trump met President Xi Jinping at the gathering of world leaders.

European indices have shot higher, with the FTSE 100 up over 1.1% and above 7,500 points for the first time in around 10 weeks. The DAX has hit a fresh 11-month high thanks to a gain of 102 points to trend above 12,559. Futures suggest a strong US open, with both Dow and S&P 500 futures up 0.8% at the time of writing.

Meanwhile, gold is trending below $1,390 today, recording losses of 1.5%, as investors unwind the recent flight to safety.

Oil races higher on OPEC progress

Iran has now given its backing to a proposed extension of OPEC’s joint oil production cuts. Other key OPEC members, as well as non-OPEC ally Russia, also seem to be in favour. This means the cuts could be finalised during the two-day meeting concluding tomorrow.

Oil has shot higher on the news, with crude breaking above $60 per barrel and Brent testing $66.50. Both represent gains of over 3.2%. Crude oil could face resistance near $60.80, the 76% retracement of the top-to-bottom move seen between late May and mid-June. Brent, meanwhile, is trending around the 50% retracement level, with $68.07 the next key resistance, on the 61% retracement line.

Bitcoin tumbles further from 15-month high

Bitcoin has moved further away from the 15-month high struck last week when markets pushed the world’s biggest cryptocurrency towards $14,000. BTC has recorded 10% losses so far today, leaving it to trade in the region of $11,300.

It looks like the once-key $11,000 resistance level has now turned into support.