Stocks bounce, oil + gold rallies fizzle

Forex
Morning Note

There has been an abrupt reversal in risk appetite after Donald Trump’s measured respond to the Iranian strikes. Far from stoking tensions, he used the moment to step back from the brink, saying Iran appears to be standing down and raising economic sanctions. It looks as we called it – Iran saves face with those air strikes but the regime made damn sure the US wouldn’t escalate. In short, it looks like the shooting war is over for now, but there is always the potential for escalation at any point. But the relative calm should mean the focus will come back to the economic data and US-China trade deal.

US stocks made gains as investors turned risk-on with the Nasdaq setting a fresh intra-day and closing high, rising 0.7%. The S&P 500 made a new intra-day high, but dipped at the death on some sketchy reports of rockets being fired in Baghdad to finish 0.5% higher at 3,253. The Dow’s gains were held in check by Boeing but still rallied 161pts to mark a near 700-pt swing off the lows of the day hit before the cash equity market opened.

On Thursday, US stock futures point to modest gains. Asia rose overnight with the Nikkei jumping more than 2%.

European markets won’t miss out on the party and are set to bounce amid this broad relief rally. The DAX is looking to open up about 100pts higher around 13,445 while the FTSE is shaping to rally 30pts for a 7600 handle.

Oil has completed an 8% round trip to $65 and then back below $60. Certainly the geopolitical risk premium is vastly diminished, but the genie’s out of the bottle and we may expect the gently rising slope of price action to continue once it bases. Yesterday’s outside day bearish engulfing candle points to near-term downside risks. Crude prices are starting to test 50% Fib level of the decline from the 2018 high to the low the same year around $59.60, with the 50-day MA coming in at $59. Even the lower end of the uptrend channel is starting to come into view – could start to see a bounce but hard to say when the base is found. Bearish US inventory data added to the pressure on oil prices as EIA data showed a build of 1.2m barrels, following draws for the last three weeks.

Gold was also substantially weaker, slipping to the $1545 region having earlier smashed through $1600. Another bearish engulfing candle suggests near term weakness and the rout has continued into today’s session.

USDJPY also shows a big engulfing candle – this time bullish –  pointing to the recent downward move ending and offering near-term upside potential. The falling trend line from the 2018 high is coming into play and offering resistance around 109.30. Clearance of the 200-day moving average is bullish.

Elsewhere in fx the euro and sterling are softer vs the buck but not tumbling. GBPUSD is finding round number support at 1.31 and has rallied from last evening’s lows. The failure of EURUSD to break 1.12 to the upside continues to back a bearish near term view but the extent of the pullback is up for debate. Rising trend support around the 1.110 has been tested and held for now. On the 4-hr chart the hammer candle points to a bullish reversal on the rising lower trend line of our channel. 4hr moving averages turning south however.

Latest Markets.com News

US Election, Recession, Brexit: What’s in store for markets in 2020 H2?

Read More

US Election 2020: What happens to the US dollar with a Democrat clean sweep?

Read More

Stocks steady as pubs prepare to reopen

Read More

Risk assets rally on bumper US NFP jobs report

Read More

Blonde Money US Nonfarm Payrolls Preview

Read More

Stocks go up, cases go up, US jobs harder to call

Read More

US oil inventories preview: EIA data to confirm the biggest draw this year?

Read More

Stocks steady after Q2 boom, gold breaks higher, economic data uncertain

Read More

Short sellers triumph as Wirecard collapses – but who’s next?

Read More
Previous
Next

Join Markets.com to Experience Marketsx

Markets.com is the state-of-the-art trading platform provided by Markets.com. As part of the TradeTech Group, a constituent of Playtech, a FTSE 250 listed company, at Markets.com we have deep knowledge of the financial markets and an incredible range of resources to continually raise the bar in the world of financial trading.

Create Account

CySEC (EU)

  • Client’s funds are kept in segregated bank accounts
  • FSCS Investor Compensation up to EUR20,000
  • Negative Balance Protection

Products

  • CFD
  • Share Dealing
  • Strategy Builder

Markets.com, operated by Safecap Investments Limited (“Safecap”) Regulated by CySEC under License no. 092/08 and FSCA under Licence no. 43906.

FSC (GLOBAL)

  • Clients’ funds kept in segregated bank accounts
  • Electronic Verification
  • Negative Balance Protection

Products

  • CFD
  • Strategy Builder

Markets.com, operated by TradeTech Markets (BVI) Limited (“TTMBVI”) Regulated by the BVI Financial Services Commission (‘FSC’) under licence no. SIBA/L/14/1067.

FCA (UK)

  • Client’s funds are kept in segregated bank accounts
  • FSCS Investor Compensation up to GBP85,000
    *depending on criteria and eligibility
  • Negative Balance Protection

Products

  • CFD
  • Spread Bets
  • Strategy Builder

Markets.com operated by TradeTech Alpha Limited (“TTA”) Regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (“FCA”) under licence number 607305.

ASIC (AU)

  • Clients’ funds kept in segregated bank accounts
  • Electronic Verification
  • Negative Balance Protection

Products

  • CFD

Markets.com, operated by Tradetech Markets (Australia) Pty Limited (‘TTMAU”) Holds Australian Financial Services Licence no. 424008 and is regulated in the provision of financial services by the Australian Securities and Investments Commission (“ASIC”).

FSCA (ZA)

  • Clients’ funds kept in segregated bank accounts
  • Negative Balance Protection

Products

  • CFD
  • Strategy Builder

Markets.com, operated by TradeTech Markets (South Africa) (Pty) Limited (“TTMSA”) Regulated by Financial Sector Conduct Authority (‘FSCA’) under the licence no. 46860.

Selecting one of these regulators will display the corresponding information across the entire website. If you would like to display information for a different regulator, please select it. For more information click here.