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Latest Insights

Tue, 5 May 2020

Forex

German court ruling update

The euro and Euro-area sovereign bonds dropped but were not exactly going into freefall after the German constitutional court gave a mixed ruling on the ECB’s bond buying programme. Judges said the asset purchase programme partially violated the German constitution, but on a key point it did not say the ECB’s actions constituted monetary financing. And it said the ruling has no bearing on the Pandemic Emergency Purchase Programme for the Covid-19 response.

Written By:
Neil Wilson

Tue, 5 May 2020

Equities

Disney earnings preview: analyst downgrade

Disney is a three-part business now – theme parks, films and streaming. Whilst streaming is going very well – thanks in no small part to lockdown – the other units are not performing so well.

Written By:
Neil Wilson

Tue, 5 May 2020

Morning Note

Euro wobbles ahead of German court ruling, risk appetite improves

Attention this morning was on the German constitutional court and its ruling on the ECB’s long-standing bond buying programme. This could limit the amount of bonds the Bundesbank can buy, potentially creating a rift with the ECB and other member states. The real concern is whether it could affect the €750bn Pandemic Emergency Purchase Programme (PEPP), which has much looser rules than other QE programmes. It’s high stakes – if the court blocks the Bundesbank from participating in QE it would be curtains for the ECB and creates significant Eurozone breakup risks.

Written By:
Neil Wilson

Mon, 4 May 2020

Equities

Where next for TSLA after Musk’s ‘price is too high’ tweet?

Telsa CEO Elon Musk wiped $14 billion off the value of his own company on May 1st after tweeting that he thought the stock price was “too high”. Has he landed himself in hot water with the SEC again, and what could this mean for traders and investors holding Tesla stock?

Written By:
Rewan Tremethick

Mon, 4 May 2020

Morning Note

European markets tumble in catchup trade, Trump bashes China

On the plus side, the UK is sketching out how it plans to end the lockdown. On the minus side, it’s going to take a long time to get back to normal. This, in a nutshell, is the problem facing the global economy and it is one reason why equity markets are not finding a straight line back to where they were pre-crisis.

Written By:
Neil Wilson

Sun, 3 May 2020

Week Ahead

Week Ahead: RBA and BoE, Disney Earnings, US NFP

Expect policy decisions from the RBA and BoE, a host more earnings reports, the US nonmanufacturing PMI, and of course the highly anticipated/dreaded April nonfarm payrolls report. Read on to see how these key events could affect the markets in the week ahead.

Written By:
Rewan Tremethick

Fri, 1 May 2020

Morning Note

FTSE 100 completes 400pt round trip this week

Stocks turned broadly weaker yesterday as investors reacted to some stinky data from Europe and the US. Overnight Asian data has also had the whiff of soft cheese that’s been left out too long. Stocks are softer once more, though most of Europe is on holiday so the focus is on London until New York opens.

Written By:
Neil Wilson

Thu, 30 April 2020

Equities

Wall St opens weaker on hangover for risk assets

Yesterday’s risk party has left participants with a bit of a hangover: risk assets have taken a bit of a beating today amid a slew of pretty rotten economic data and an ECB presser that maybe wasn’t all that. There is also a sense that equity markets rode too aggressively on the Gilead news and need to see more evidence, whilst the FTSE has notably underperformed thanks to the oil majors.

Written By:
Neil Wilson

Thu, 30 April 2020

Morning Note

Shell sold, Lloyds crumples, markets look to future post Covid

Shares in Shell slumped 7% as it cut its dividend and reported net income in the first quarter almost halved. Whilst BP chose to absorb a $6bn rise in net debt to $51bn and gearing above 36x in order to preserve its precious dividend, Shell seems to be taking a more prudent approach in cutting its dividend for the first time since the 1940s. Arguably BP is better placed to weather the storm, but Shell is taking the more sensible course of action. Shell’s gearing ratio is down to around 28x, a more comfortable level for Ben van Beurden than it is for Bernard Looney. This poses a simple question for investors – can BP keep it up? 

Written By:
Neil Wilson

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