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Latest Insights

Mon, 21 September 2020

US Presidential Election

Congressional Elections: Why do they matter?

While the race for the White House has received outsized attention, developments such as the failure to reach a new coronavirus relief bill and the looming threat of a government shutdown have heightened the stakes in the battle for control of Congress. The House of Representatives looks firmly in the hands of the Democrats after the inroads they made in the 2018 midterms. Control of the Senate is therefore crucial. It’s currently in Republican hands and the Democrats would need to win four seats of the twenty-three up for grabs in order to gain an overall majority.

Written By:
Helen Thomas

Mon, 21 September 2020

Morning Note

Bank shares tumble on FinCEN files, travel stocks sank by lockdown fears

September blues continue: European markets shot lower in early trade on Monday after US stocks fell for a third week in a row – the first such sustained decline in a year. The FTSE 100 headed under 5,900 and the DAX gave up the 13,000 handle as risk aversion spread across equity markets. The FTSE 100 plunged more than 2.5% lower to test the big September lows – the weakest since May – at 5850. On Friday the S&P 500 broke down at the 50-day simple moving average and closed at its weakest since early August. 

Written By:
Neil Wilson

Sun, 20 September 2020

Week Ahead

Week Ahead: Tesla Battery Day to spark investor interest

Tesla hosts its long-awaited and much-hyped Battery Day on Tuesday, with investors eyeing a possible game-changing technology announcement. Meanwhile the economic data stream flows with flash PMIs for the Eurozone, a Reserve of Bank of New Zealand interest rate decision and the weekly US jobs report.

Written By:
Neil Wilson

Fri, 18 September 2020

US Presidential Election

Blue-nami or Red Wave? How the US election result could impact markets

Will there be Democratic sweep of all three houses; the White House and both houses of Congress? Or can Donald Trump defy the pollsters and hold on for four more years?

Written By:
Neil Wilson

Fri, 18 September 2020

Morning Note

Stocks softer as UK mulls second lockdown

Boris Johnson says a national lockdown would be disastrous, but his scientific advisers are proposing a two-week lock-up in October. A new risk-averse religion with devotees kneeling to the great NHS deity has been born. The question is whether the government decides to ‘follow the science’ or not.

Written By:
Neil Wilson

Thu, 17 September 2020

Forex

BoE quick take: negative rates on the table hit cable

Sterling dropped sharply along with gilt yields, with GBPUSD down one big figure to take a 1.28 handle and 2-year gilt yields dropping to -0.1% after the Bank of England delivered a dovish statement which included overt references to introducing negative rates. It looks like Bailey is prepared to go big and fast if there is an unemployment crisis once the furlough scheme ends. For the time being he is keeping his powder dry.

Written By:
Neil Wilson

Thu, 17 September 2020

Morning Note

Stocks weaker post-Fed, Bank of England, OPEC+ meetings ahead

Wall Street fell and Asian equities followed the weak handover even as the Fed stayed very much on script with a dovish lower-for-longer message, whilst also presenting a more upbeat take on the economy in the near term.

Written By:
Neil Wilson

Wed, 16 September 2020

Equities

Tesla Battery Day primer: Can Musk deliver as TSLA rallies on event hype?

Investors are charged up with excitement ahead of Tesla’s Battery Day event. Shares have rallied about 25% in the last week after the stock tapped on the 50-day simple moving average following some heavy selling in the middle of the Nasdaq’s early September pullback. This of course followed disappointment at missing out on S&P 500 inclusion, and some very aggressive bid that took place in and around the stock split. So is Battery Day all hype, or is there something to it?

Written By:
Neil Wilson

Wed, 16 September 2020

Commodities

EIA crude inventories preview: Oil up after API report smashes estimates

Crude and Brent oil are moving higher for a second session today after another massive draw in US oil stockpiles.

Written By:
Rewan Tremethick

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